ron johnson approval rating 538
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. Since 2019, his net favorability rating in the WOW counties has dropped from an average of plus 41 to plus-8 in the last four Marquette polls combined. And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. . Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. Trump is quite unpopular here. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. Those is Tim. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. RCP House Ratings, Map. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year. Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. Its based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 that its a good idea to think about politicians popularity in the context of their states partisanship. Many conservatives see Barnes, an outspoken progressive whos called House progressive Squad member IIhan Omar of Minnesota brilliant, as the perfect foil for Johnson to caricature as extreme. He assumed office on January 3, 2011. Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. A spokesperson for Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says he was unaware of an exchange between his staff and that of Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. The poll is hardly an outlier. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. Reagan's job approval ratings in the first years of his term were hurt by the bad economy, and the last years of his administration were marred by the negative . Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. But the electorate has hardened around him. In that sense, I think we can be quite confident the decline is real, Franklin said. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. The poll, whose . This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. But his moderation has endeared him to voters in his home state of West Virginia: He has a +22 net approval rating in the R+36 state, for a chamber-leading PARS of +58. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. 2022 Senate Elections (51) I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. You must be an Urban Milwaukee member to leave a comment. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2.6 points (45.4 percent to 42.8 percent). Independent Sens. I'm just trying to convey the truth. A. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Democratic Lt. Gov. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. This is ridiculous. yes, Becky. Democratic Gov. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. Phil Scott has not yet announced whether he is running, but it is expected that he will, as of May 12, 2022. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, Andrew Hitt, former chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, called Johnson a master at retail politics whose plain-spoken, calling it as he sees it approach appeals to Wisconsinites when leveraged appropriately. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. Can we marry dogs? The January 6 hearings are a dog and pony show They should be holding the Jeffrey Epstein Videotaped Every US Congressman that Visited Epstein Pedophile Island and then Epstein Blackmailed Them hearings Or how about the Joe Biden Staged a Coup in Kiev in 2014, Overthrew the Democratically Elected Government of Ukraine, Then Murdered Over 15,000 Russian Speaking Ukraine Civilians hearings. Almost 40% of voters six years ago didnt know Johnson or had no opinion of him, compared with around20% today. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . Buy It Now. The American Independent is the No. Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. It's just that people in the legacy media call me one and all of a sudden, you become one. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. But a lot has changed in the last few months. As a result, more governors than senators have PARGs at the extreme ends of the spectrum, as you can see in the table below. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. When the dates . Johnson is quite popular today with pro-Trump voters in Wisconsin (those who view Trump positively), drawing a net rating of around plus 60 in recent years. and Biden approval rating unchanged. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are all rated Toss-ups, while Sen. Maggie Hassan 's race in New Hampshire is . Plus 5 to minus 28 among moderates (the second sharpest decline). These polling trends dont mean Johnson cant win this fall. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. According to a, As hate crimes against Asian Americans have, Billionaire Elon Musks quest to buy Twitter isnt yet official, but if he is successful, he said this week he will. The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker,5 41.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump since he . Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. Democratic President Joe Biden was also underwater in the latest poll, with just 40% approving of him and 57% disapproving. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. Another factor that could affect the vote which bodes well for Republicans is the enthusiasm factor, which typically drives the turnout and can be critical in a swing state like Wisconsin. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. That poll . Bush 1989-93. But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. Price: US $0.99. House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. Mandela Barnes, by five points (51% to 46%) in the state's U.S. Senate race.
